Now, one of the major problems with that information cuisinart, the news, has with "Global Warming" is how they report it. They talk about, "increase in temperature," but forget to mention what that really means.
Climatologists take the results of their models and turn it into a single, nice and easy to work with number.
(Most branches of science like to do that, in fact.) What they're
really generating from the models are how the behavior of the Earth's atmosphere will change by dumping extra CO
2 into the air. They take those results, specifically the results for the Earth's surface, and average them, over the entire globe, over every day, day and night. This is the "temperature" that the news incorrectly spits at you.
It's the change in the average global atmospheric surface temperature.
The thing is, that's just the symptom of the real effect of pooping all of that CO
2 into the atmosphere. The real effect is that the Earth, "retains heat-energy" (kinda like retaining water, but with different noxious effects). I say, "heat-energy," not to confuse you, dear reader, but to explicitly point out that the climatologists are looking at energy, not "how warm do I feel."
Well, then, how can we convert that, "increase in average global atmospheric surface temperature," to an, "increase in the average global heat-energy at the 'surface' of the atmosphere?"
Grabbing
the result from my last entry:
| Δ Q=Δ T cp MA·(1−e−z· AE·ρ0/MA) | | (6) |
…where: Δ
Q is the change in heat-energy, Δ
T is the change in temperature;
cp=1004 J/(K·kg) for dry air;
MA=5.14·10
18 kg is the mass of Earth's entire atmosphere;
AE≃5.1·10
14 m
2 is the surface area of the Earth;
and ρ
0≈1.2 kg/m
3 density of the atmosphere at sea level.
Next, I'll point out that you're already familiar with energy. Sure, the scientific units of energy, "Joules," may not mean anything to you, but you
do have a feel for what energy is using other units: tons of TNT.
4.184·10
9 Joules == 1 ton TNT
1 Hiroshima == 15 kilotons TNT == 6.276·1
0
13 Joules
At this point, it's just a matter of deciding how tall the "surface" of the atmosphere is, then plugging in temperature changes. I've seen definitions as low as 2 meters and as high as 500 meters. I'm going to plug both in, and see how they differ:
( Some Geekiness )So, if we make the "surface" of the atmosphere 500 meters thick, Δ
Q is about 300 times larger than if we let it be only 2 meters (6.5 feet) thick.
Now, in Copenhagen, there's been a lot of talk about a, "2 °C temperature rise." You now know that they're really talking about a "2 °C increase in the global average surface temperature."
We can now convert that to the increase in average heat-energy in the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere:
Δ
Q = Δ
T·2.5·10
18 J
= 590 Megatons of TNT
= 39,000 Hiroshimas
Do you get it? Now do you understand what it means to have that "2 °C temperature rise"? It's equivalent to adding heat-energy equal to the energy output of 39,000 Hiroshima bombs.
Every Year.